They also brought in Russell Westbrook after Utah bought him out. Tucker, but Phillys bench and Rivers deployment of that bench remains suspect. But by landing Kevin Durant in a trade deadline blockbuster, the Suns have the second-best odds of winning the NBA title. Based on the odds from Caesars Sportsbook, which list Golden State as -160 (and Boston as +140), we can infer that the bookmakers consider the Warriors a 60 percent favorite to win the title. If the trio of Durant, Paul and Booker is healthy, the Suns will be the most dangerous team in the West. Even without him, though, theres a decent chance that the Grizz do not give rotation minutes to a single player who projects as a net-negative. Philadelphia 76ers (+750 . If L.A. manages to trade Russell Westbrook and replace him with on-court positives, it could see a major bump. As a team, theyre impenetrable, which is only part of why we love them at +550 in the NBA championship odds. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. Simmons didn't want to play for the Sixers anymore and will hear it from the Philadelphia crowd. If it doesn't, it will be very difficult for Brooklyn to reach its ultimate goal given Irving can only play in away games. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Beating the LA Clippers on Dec. 31. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of The NBA. The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent). The Sixers might have found their answer at backup center in the rugged P.J. Finally, we have to talk about the race for the bottom of the standings in both conferences, which is sure to be impacted by the Tank-O-Rama for Victor Wembanyama. There are a handful of famous exceptions, like Detroit adding the final piece it needed with Rasheed Wallace in 2004. Dallas desperately needed a move like this, too. teams in that category: the defending champion Golden State Warriors, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and (in alphabetical order) the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors. Los Angeles Lakers (95) Jalen Carters arrest warrant for reckless driving and racing, explained. The Cs currently sit as the +325 chalk, followed by the Milwaukee Bucks at +550 and the Denver Nuggets at +650. From a mall parking lot altercation to a fight with a teenager during a pickup game, these are the allegations Ja Morant is facing. The biggest surprise (to me, at least) is the Hornets, who are projected to finish above .500 even after accounting for LaMelo Balls ankle sprain. The Grizzlies have a league-high 10 rotation players projected as net-positives in total RAPTOR (though one of those is Danny Green, who may not play at all this season). Devin Booker and Chris Paul have both missed a lot of time and Phoenix sits at fourth in the West. (Right now, we are projecting him outside of the rotation with no real replacement and the minutes being redistributed among players like Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne, Timoth Luwawu-Cabarrot, Josh Okogie and Damion Lee.) The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. Miami Heat (71) Still, this +650 value will shrink (it was +800 a few weeks ago) if Denver continues to look like an elite squad. In are Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, and Russell Westbrook. Must-see game left on the schedule: Heat at Knicks, March 22 (7:30 p.m. Our How to Bet on the NBA page has everything you need to know so you can feel comfortable making wagers on pro basketball. Youll notice that the odds are listed like this: Lets pretend you believe that the Celtics are the team to beat based on the odds listed above. Things can change fastso keep track of the latest NBA Futuresbefore you bet. ET, TNT): What else could this be, when Simmons and the Nets come to Wells Fargo Center to face Embiid, Harden and the 76ers? NBA Championship Odds: Trade Deadline Shakes Up Betting Markets (March 1) Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. Chase Kiddy. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY DAN DAO / GETTY IMAGES. But in the modern era of basketball, deadline trades are much more effective in acquiring talent for future championship runs than they are in setting up short-term, immediate success. FiveThirtyEight gives the Warriors a 20% chance . KCP is knocking down 45 percent of his threes and fitting in to the Nuggets equal opportunity offense. Washington did try to address its chemistry issues and loosen the logjam of minutes and roles by trading away Harrell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Caesars title odds: +50000 A teams current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. It appears the organization trusts the core theyve built around Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. That is lofty company to keep. There is some historical wisdom behind minimalism at the deadline. Download data. Playoff and title projections: Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Theyve had key players miss time throughout the season and still managed to have the leagues best record at the break though theyve since fallen behind red-hot Milwaukee. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. Players like Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt and Kelly Olynyk still project to perform fairly well and to play significant minutes. While youre here, check out some of our other NBA betting sitesor unique basketball betting content like our popular first-quarter/first-half betting report or our analysis of which teams perform best on back-to-back days. I realize this is sort of a radical concept, but if a team is better during the regular season and better during the playoffs, it might just be better. But now the Sixers have to acclimate themselves to one of the league's biggest -- and most ball-dominant -- stars in 24 games between now and the start of the playoffs. . FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. The fact Erik Spoelstra and his staff were able to navigate through the tough times and continue to rack up wins set them up to be atop the East heading into the break. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. Download and follow the Dubs Talk Podcast, FiveThirtyEight gives Dubs surprisingly low chance to win title, FiveThirtyEights 2022 NBA Finals prediction, What Draymond believes is 'key No. Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. NBA Playoffs (275) FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.5%. Illustration by Elias Stein. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team on Feb. 10. For Dallas, Doni projects nearly as well on offense as does Joki, which is more than enough to carry a supporting cast full of players who project somewhere between minus-0.5 and plus-1.4 in total RAPTOR. ET, ESPN): Several members of the Bulls organization were furious at the flagrant foul from Grayson Allen that resulted in Alex Caruso's fractured wrist the last time these two teams met. The Clippers arent the only team in town that made moves. Similarly, the Warriors have home-court advantage for the Finals by virtue of their superior record (despite being a lower seed within their own conference). And in this case, theres plenty of evidence that the better team doesnt have home-court advantage. Toronto Raptors (88) The KD And Kyrie Trades Stole The Show At A Wild NBA Trade Deadline, Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear. How quickly they can get on the floor, get up to speed and revive a struggling defense could make the difference. Carter has reportedly left the combine after allegations of his role in a fatal car accident. Must-see game left on the schedule: Heat at Celtics, March 30 (7:30 p.m. FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) May 17, 2022 Despite FiveThirtyEight's prediction, the Warriors hold the top odds to win the NBA championship per Tipico Sportsbook at plus-135. The team has desperately missed Steven Adams, whos been out since Jan. 22 with a PCL sprain. Lets take a look at those eight contenders and where they stand as the NBA races to the finish line. The Joel Embiid-James Harden duo has been excellent. Next, we should note that RAPTOR cannot exactly predict the degree to which a team will attempt to tank this season. Will the Lakers miss the 2023 NBA Playoffs? Caesars title odds: +100000 Brooklyn Nets (+260) 2. To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager. The Nuggets have the best record in theWestern Conferenceand have looked like one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Parity is running wild this NBA season. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%. Troy Brown Jr. who started in place of LeBron finished with 2 points on 1-of-7 shooting, and 0-of-4 from beyond the arc. NBA Predictions (26). Brook Lopez hasn't played another game this season, and the Bucks would spend all of the first half shuffling players in and out. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Neil Paine is the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. Caesars title odds: +20000 Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. 1. Now, theyve added more star talent via a trade for Kyrie Irving. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Can the Raptors hold up? The East has been much more stable, as contenders seem content with the core rosters they assembled prior to the start of the season. The Pelicans, Raptors, Hawks and Timberwolves are all priced between +3000 and +5000. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors.) Denvers regular-season resume has been good so far. However, since that stat also captures the effect of having the better team which usually (but not always) correlates with a better record the true value of Finals home court is smaller. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. That wasnt necessarily the case for either team a few weeks ago. The Clippers are such a wildcard. Such teams are usually rare: From 2015-16 through 2021-22, our preseason forecast included, on average, 5.4 (and at most eight) teams with championship odds of 5 percent or better. Denver has four players averaging 15 or more points per game this season. About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. The Jazz rank first by ESPN's BPI and Playoff BPI as well as FiveThirtyEight's ELO championship metric . When we last saw them Toronto dropped two of its final three games before the break but has gone 18-8 since Dec. 31, revitalizing its season and going from a team hoping to get into the play-in tournament to one hoping to avoid it by finishing among the top six in the East. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of The NBA. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. If youre hunting for long shots, theres plenty of interesting shuffling happening in the middle of the table. The Suns and Jazz, routinely at the top of the standings the past few seasons, have each moved down for different reasons. If you were to lay down $100, youd see a payout of $650 you get your $100 back, plus your earnings of $550. The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent). Odds & lines subject to change. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. When the 2022-23 NBA season begins next week, our RAPTOR prediction model sees a league with a field of title contenders more wide-open than at any time in recent history. The Knicks need him to be the engine of the second unit that he has proven to be when healthy. Here is how FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR currently has the NBA's playoff seeds unfolding (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses):. They needed 24 different starting lineups to get through 60 games. Three (the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics . The Suns and Mavericks had the two biggest deadline deals of the season, acquiring Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, respectively, from the Brooklyn Nets. Browns Swiss Army Knife skill set has been welcomed. The upshot of all of that? ET, ESPN): When Miami comes to town at the end of March, there will be less than two weeks to go in the regular season, making it a potentially massive game for seeding purposes for both teams. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely. If it does, the Nets have a legitimate chance to contend for a title. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 9%. Each time the Bucks appeared ready to start rattling off wins in the first half -- such as winning five of six games, including their West Coast swing earlier this month -- they followed up with a setback, dropping three of four heading into the break. One surprise team that fits the bill is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who elected to make no moves at the deadline. A big part of that resurgence has also been the play of Kawhi Leonard, who is once again reminding the league that he is one of the best players of this generation when at the top of his game. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks took huge swings at the deadline to try to stay in the hunt. The FiveThirtyEight projections are significantly less favorable to Golden State than those released by oddsmakers this week, who have the Warriors as the betting favorite to win the championship. (New Orleans will also benefit from Zion Williamson actually playing and presumably producing at a high level, which will quickly improve his rest-of-season projection.). Now lets move over to the East, where Boston is the favorite with a big caveat. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 13%. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: This could be the return of Marcus Smart on Jan. 23, which coincided with Boston's recent hot streak, but we'll instead say it was the acquisition of Derrick White just before the trade deadline. The Westbrook pickup is confusing, especially with the former MVP getting the opportunity to start and taking minutes from Gordon and Terance Mann. Right now, sportsbooks have the Boston Celtics, owners of the best record in basketball and the defendingEastern Conference champions, as the favorites in the NBA Finals odds for this season. The Warriors have faced their fair share of doubters this season as theyve overcome adversity to reach their sixth Western Conference finals appearance in the last eight years. The 24-year-old is averaging a career-high 30.9 PPG and has jacked up his field-goal percentage to .464. They estimate their chances of winning the title as 21%. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. Denvers projection is, of course, powered by Nikola Joki, who is projected to once again lead the league in total RAPTOR by a lot. This is not to say there arent any measurable factors breaking in Golden States favor with this matchup. The West is very bunched up. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Hawks odds themselves have collapsed, dropping from +8000 a month ago to +15000 after the coaching change. When we last saw them Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games to vault themselves back into the play-in conversation. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. (Im personally higher than our player projections are on Kuminga.). Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. The Nets were 8-to-1 to win the title at the end of January; now, theyre 150-to-1. Start with this eyebrow-raising fact: the FiveThirtyEight model has the Boston Celtics as the NBA championship favorites. They introduced James Harden, lost big at home to the Celtics, then picked up a huge road win in Milwaukee to head into the break on a high note -- led by the latest dominant performance from Joel Embiid in a season full of them. The 8 NBA teams that can win the championship this season, Jaden Ivey pulled a Chris Webber, and it cost Pistons the game vs. Bulls. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. It should be a heck of a lot of fun to see how the East playoff picture shakes out. NBA championship odds: Best bets to walk away with 2021 title among league's top teams . Ahead of todays Game 1 of the NBA Finals, lets get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +2500 Most impactful moment during the season's first half: It came about two hours before the Feb. 10 trade deadline, when the 76ers and Nets completed the Ben Simmons-James Harden swap. If he's healthy, Porzingis will certainly be motivated facing his old team. If those players stay healthy, the Raptors have a chance to be a threat. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. It appears the organization trusts the core theyve built around Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +25000 TeamRankings also rounds to 58 wins but a 353 title . This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. How much will this game affect playoff odds, Show our forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings. The Mavs have hovered around the fringe-playoff territory for most of the year but have kicked it up a notch and are now sixth in the West. We switched that up to give him a standard per-game minute load and will simply dock the Clippers for his absence on days that he sits out entirely, since thats typically the way his teams have handled his injury management in the past. What Are The Most Vulnerable Senate Seats In 2024? Jayson Tatums steady progression has also been a huge factor. The Nets are still confident they can contend for a title this season, but the trade changed the team's course in the middle of a trying season in which they are still dealing with Durant's knee injury and Irving's part-time status. Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. 1 But. A healthy Nets squad with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Simmons comes to town for a showdown with Butler and Co. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The key for this veteran bunch is being able to stay healthy. Pivot point for the rest of the season: If the Knicks want to make a push down the stretch, they'll need more intensity on the defensive end. With Simmons missing all season, the 76ers have overachieved thanks to what has been the best season of Embiid's career. RAPTOR does not contain a coaching adjustment, so there is no way for it to factor in the absence of Ime Udoka, who was suspended by the Celtics for a year after violating team policy by having an intimate relationship with a female member of the franchises staff. One surprise team that fits the bill is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who elected to make no moves at the deadline. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. Preseason predicted standings for the NBAs 2022-23 Western Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast. As weve already established, superstars win championships in the NBA, which must be thrilling for the Mavericks, who have NBA MVP candidate Luka Doncic leading their squad. Cleveland lost two of its top three guards -- Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio -- to season-ending injuries, so the team made a move before the deadline to pick up LeVert. More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Of the three, Memphis is the most popular ticket to win the West, but Golden State is the most popular ticket to win the championship. Playoff and title projections: The Bucks overtook the Celtics for the Easts top spot, despite three-time All-Star Khris Middleton playing just 20 games and still rounding into form. Also not among that group are the L.A. Clippers even after we made a change to the minutes projection for Kawhi Leonard.1 Both the Clippers and Pelicans figure to benefit from the new way we are projecting minutes on a game-to-game basis this season, but those effects will not be seen until games actually start being played. As a result, bettors have become more comfortable buying Sacramento positions. The All-Star break is over and it's time to look ahead to the stretch run of the NBA season. The Nets were 8-to-1 to win the title at the end of January; now, theyre 150-to-1. Harrell has averaged 17.8 points and 7.5 rebounds on 65.1% shooting since being acquired at the deadline. Boston Celtics (87) Who is the favorite to win the NBA championship? While the Warriors won two more games than the Celtics, that happened because Boston undershot its Pythagorean record by eight games making it the unluckiest team in the league by that measure. The Clippers began the season as one of the title favorites at +700, but a slow start dropped them in the table to +1400 at the end of January. Luke Kennard adds elite shooting to the mix, and Memphis slew of young and willing defenders provide balance. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions to generate talent estimates for each team. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers will be in the mix again and you cant sleep on the defending champions Golden State Warriors or young and hungry Memphis Grizzlies. According to SportsOddsHistory, just eight champions since 1984 have started the year at double-digit odds to win the title. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. There isn't a more anticipated game the rest of this regular season across the NBA. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions to generate talent estimates for each team. The Clippers began the season as one of the title favorites at +700, but a slow start dropped them in the table to +1400 at the end of January. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +5000 Must-see game left on the schedule: Hawks at Hornets, March 16 (7 p.m. The 76ers had a wild final few days before the All-Star break. They lost both Lonzo Ball and Caruso to extended injuries during a one-week span, but both players along with second-year forward Patrick Williams, who hasn't played since October, are eyeing returns in mid-March. The Bucks came into the break as the Easts hottest team and have kept it going, extending their win streak to 15. FiveThirtyEight's model has Boston's chances of winning the NBA Finals at a whopping 80 percent, nearly 36 percent better than the odds suggest. 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